Croatia Favoured with “75% Chance” of Winning Eurovision Semi-Final 1, Predicts Bookmakers…
According to the latest forecasts from UK bookmakers, Croatia is the clear frontrunner to triumph in Eurovision’s Semi-Final 1. Represented by Baby Lasagna, Croatia stands as the odds-on favourites at 1/3 odds-on to clinch victory in Tuesday’s Semi-Final, indicating an impressive 75% implied probability.
In addition to leading their Semi-Final, Croatia is currently the bookies’ tournament favourites at odds of 11/8 to win Saturday’s Final. Meanwhile, Ireland has emerged as the second-most-popular bet to win the Semi-Final on Tuesday, taking 22% of bets on Oddschecker in 2024.
Ireland’s representative, Bambie Thug, is odds of 12/1 to win Semi-Final 1, and favourable odds of 1/18 to achieve a Top 10 Finish and qualify for Saturday’s final (95% implied probability). For the Eurovision final on Saturday, Bambie Thug maintains odds of 12/1, corresponding to an implied probability of 7.7%.
The UK of course heads straight to the final, we’ll have to see if Olly Alexander can charm Europe.
Oddschecker’s Leon Blackman:
“Eurovision favourites, Croatia, are projected a commanding win in tonight’s Semi-Final 1. Across the 20+ bookmakers on Oddschecker, Croatia are odds of 1/3 or shorter, translating to a 75% implied probability of a win on Tuesday. Furthermore, they currently also stand as the frontrunners to win the final on Saturday, valued at odds of 11/8. Bookies are confident Ireland and Bambie Thug through to the final, with a Top 10 finish currently 1/18, converting to a 95% implied probability.”
https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner
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Semi Final 1 Winner
|
Odds
|
Implied Probability
|
|
Croatia
|
1/3
|
75%
|
|
Ukraine
|
4/1
|
20%
|
|
Ireland
|
12/1
|
7.7%
|
|
Finland
|
28/1
|
3.4%
|
|
Lithuania
|
33/1
|
2.9%
|
|
Luxembourg
|
80/1
|
12%
|
|
Poland
|
150/1
|
0.7%
|
|
Cyprus
|
200/1
|
0.5%
|
|
Portugal
|
200/1
|
0.5%
|
|
Serbia
|
200/1
|
0.5%
|
|
Azerbaijan
|
300/1
|
0.3%
|
|
Iceland
|
300/1
|
0.3%
|
|
Slovenia
|
300/1
|
0.3%
|
|
Australia
|
300/1
|
0.3%
|
