Bets are set for a political change…
Labour are as short as 1/500 to win the most seats in this week’s election, and Reform have replaced the Conservative as the second favourite in the market, however, odds of 80/1 to win the most seats make this an unrealistic outcome.
With a Labour Majority being as short as 1/150 in the betting markets, it’s not a case of whether Labour will win, it’s by how many seats they will win. Current betting markets have Labour as the betting favourite in 448 constituencies. The latest Labour Total seat odds market has Labour at 2/1 to win between 400-449 seats.
Reform
Despite Reform being the second favourites to win the most seats, they are only the betting favourite in one constituency (Clacton). Despite that being the case, Reform are 7/4 to win 7+ seats at the General Election.
Conservative Party
The Conservative Party were the betting favourites in 120 constituencies on June 11th, however, they are now only the betting favourites in 94 constituencies, and have seen their odds drop to 125/1 to win the most seats at the election.
Liberal Democrats
The Lib Dems have been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Conservative Party downfall, since the 11th June they have gone from being the betting favourites in 51 constituencies to 63. The Liberal Democrats are 5/6 to win 60+ seats at the General Election with the bookmakers.
Overall
The downfall of the Conservative Party is perfectly illustrated in the graphic below. It’s remarkable to think that the Labour Party and Conservative Party were neck-and-neck in the betting markets in late 2022.
Oddschecker spokesperson, Sam Eaton:
“The 2024 General Election looks like a foregone conclusion with the Labour Party set to walk away with a majority. An interesting market which will point towards future elections is the vote percentage, Reform are 3/1 to gain 20% or higher of the vote.”
“There are a few stand-out constituencies when it comes to betting action on this weeks election. Islington North has been the most popular betting constituency, with online bettors sticking with Jeremy Corbyn, despite Labour now being the 4/7 betting favourites in the market. Clacton has been a popular betting market, with punters rushing to back Nigel Farage who is now 2/11 to win the seat. Finally, there’s been plenty of interest in the Chingford and Woodford Green seat, with bettors favouring Independent candidate, Fazia Shaheen to win the seat, despite being 6/1 in the market”.
