Data analysis predicts this year’s Strictly Come Dancing winner

Findings include that male celebrity contestants win the show 60% of the time and with only Will Mellor and Hamza Yassin remaining could it be one of the duo?  The Cha-Cha-Cha proved difficult for past winners with an average score of 27 and wildlife Presenter Hamza Yassin is predicted to win this year’s series based on historic winning data.

Strictly Come Dancing’s 2022 series is entering its final weeks and this year’s contestants are getting closer each week to taking home the title. William Hill has analysed data from the show’s previous 10 victors to reveal the makings of a winning contestant, in an effort to predict this year’s winner.

Gender of past winner:

Male contestants – 60%

Female contestants – 40%

Despite this, there are more women still standing at this year’s competition as only two males left in the competition, Hamza Yassin and Will Mellor, also the men only have 0.1 of a lead on their combined average score of 33.6.

Average score by occupation:

Presenter – 36

Model – 36

Actor/actress – 35

The final five are made up of 2 presenters, 2 actors and a singer with the leading occupation of a presenter being the jobs of both Helen Skelton and Hamza Yassin.

Average score on themed weeks:

Musical-themed weeks –  36

Halloween – 34

Movie week – 33

The overall average for themed weeks from former winners is 34.3, the celebrities who have got closest to this are Helen Skelton with 34 and Will Mellor with 34.6.

Most likely winners of the show also have an average weekly score of 34 points out of 40, just two stars have passed the 34 mark this year as Hamza Yassin and Molly Rainford are tied with 34.2.

The top score from a judge is the coveted 10 out of 10, with the standard being so high for winning ballroom partners it comes as no surprise that on average past trophy holders have collected 18 during their time on the show.

Each celebrity gracing the ballroom ends up discovering their preferred speciality, be it Salsa, Rumba or Waltz.

One routine that has caught the couples out more than any other is the Cha-Cha-Cha, with the couples gaining an average of just 27 out of 40 when performing on the show.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the dance that received the highest average for past winners turned out to be the Couple’s Choice Routine.

This is the routine in which couples can select any dance style they wish, and usually takes place towards the end of the series, more often resulting in full marks of 40 out of 40.

Based on this data, it’s looking highly likely that wildlife presenter and cameraman Hamza Yassin could be this year’s winner, as the odds suggest.

Full odds market 

Data gathered October in 2022.